We run it back and divulge the deets on what the upcoming 2025-2026 winter may look like for Oregon & Washington in terms of snow totals and ski quality.

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Table of Contents (click to jump ahead)

  1. Introduction
  2. Recap of '24-25
  3. General Outlook for '25-26
  4. First Turns of the '25-26 Season: October 27

Introduction

In this article, we attempt a layperson's description of what the upcoming winter season might look like from the perspective of backcountry ski/splitboard touring.

We encourage you to check out last year's (2024-2025) outlook article for good general tips on staying informed as winter develops. For brevity, we will not include them here again.

A Recap of Last Winter (2024-2025)

Winter 2024-2025 can be characterized, from a season-wide snowpack depth perspective, as about average. Below is a month-by-month description of how it unfolded.

  • December was a phenomenal month for ski touring.
  • January was interesting, in a way. Lamentably, not a single snow grain fell from the sky on Mt. Hood from January 1 to January 31, 2025.
  • February came with a bang and gave us great mid-winter powder days. It was not without turmoil, however, as we experienced two massive atmospheric river events.
  • March continued where February left off and delivered several cold storms. We had an excellent AIARE 2 course during a serious avalanche cycle.
  • April saw the standard transition take place in which high pressure returned and the snowpack transitioned to an isothermal regime.

    • General Outlook for '25-26

    La Niña piñata

    As mentioned in last year's article, La Niña in the PNW tends to produce normal to below average temperatures with above average precipitation. This season is expected to have a weak La Niña with its effects washing out by the turn of the year.

    What this means in practice is that there are no indicators to suggest that the season will be anything but average, with a very, very slight bias towards being slightly better than last season. This is good news for folks who like to recreate in the snow!

    Ski quality

    Last year's outlook (as well as all available contemporaneous modeling) failed to predict the month-long drought which occurred in January. But with a seasonal forecast that expects roundabout average temperatures and precipitation, we expect normal ski conditions to apply.

    In the PNW, this means:

    • Mostly warm-snow storms (think 32° F @ 4,000’ – decent skiing)
    • Atmospheric river events (think 42° F @ 4,000’ – poor skiing)
    • Occasional cold-snow storms (think 22° F @ 4,000’ – Sickter on the Richter)

      • Expect a preponderance of warm snow events, a few atmospheric rivers, and 2-3 cold snow events. When the forecast calls for a big storm with temps below 25 F, try to capitalize and get out and enjoy it!

      First Turns of the '25-26 Season: October 27

      Timing & snow instability

      Instabilities lurking on Mt. Hood - October 27, 2025

      Just like last year, we found skiable snow on Mt. Hood in late October. We also found generally stable snow except for on the lee sides of ridges - there, we encountered 10-25cm wind slabs which were reactive, meaning that we humans could easily trigger them and there were several natural releases observed.

      The snow that we skied is actively ablating in response to warmer temperatures and a lack of new snow. The forecast seems to suggest that we will experience sporadic high-elevation rain for the next week or so. After that, we hope to see successive, base-building storms!

      A plug for the past

      We encourage you to check out our seasonal outlook from last year to read about staying informed as winter develops - there are some great tips in there.

      This article was written & posted on October 30, 2025. We may update this article as key meteorological events occur!